Friday, August 30, 2013

New F&M Poll - Obama Worse Off Than Corbett

A new Franklin & Marshall College poll was released on Wednesday.

When taken together (somewhat unfavorable + strongly unfavorable), more Pennsylvania voters have an unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama than Tom Corbett. 50% have an unfavorable opinion of President Obama while 46% have an unfavorable opinion of Governor Corbett.  When you strip it away to just the strongly unfavorable, 41% of Pennsylvanians have an unfavorable opinion of Obama while 32% feel that way about Corbett.

On job performance, 42% of Pennsylvania believes President Obama is doing a poor job and 33% say the same for Governor Corbett.

Most of the reporting has focused entirely on Governor Tom Corbett and his re-election chances.  Some context is conspicuously absent.

In March of 2011, the year preceding his re-election year, President Obama's total unfavorable rating was at 44%.  Corbett's today is at 46%.  At that same time, 16% of the electorate was undecided or didn't know how they felt about Obama.  Today, 31% fall into that category for Corbett.

There simply isn't a statistically significant difference between Obama and Corbett when examining their unfavorables.  And, as far as those that haven't made up their minds on it, Corbett has a pool of voters nearly twice as large as President Obama did that may be open to supporting him.

With numbers like those, President Obama still went on to win Pennsylvania with 51.97% of the vote.  Despite the dreams of many a partisan reporter, that is still a possibility for Governor Corbett.

No comments: