Monday, December 20, 2010

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Post Election Analysis – Tom Corbett for Governor

Statewide, Republicans make up 37% of the registered voters. Any statewide candidate running on the Republican ticket needs to move enough Democrats and Independent voters to get an additional 13%+1 vote to be successful.

Conversely, Democrats make up 51% of the registered voters in Pennsylvania. For a Democrat to win, all they need do is hold onto and turn out their base.

Any candidate would be happy with a 54% win. But, to accurately gauge a county’s success or failure in an election, you need to look beyond the win/loss column. Instead, it is better to look at how much ground that particular candidate gained above their party’s registration.

For instance, for a Democrat to win 78% Democratic Philadelphia County by 54% or a Republican to win 62% Republican Snyder County with 54% of the vote is no great accomplishment. In fact, it would indicate a breakdown in their campaign. But, for the minority party to win either county in this example, would be a tremendous victory.

So, a look at our NEPA Counties:

As stated earlier, PA is 37% Republican and Corbett received 54% of the vote or +17%.

When taken together, NEPA’s 17 counties are 40% Republican and Corbett received 60% of the vote or +20%.

Of the 50 PA counties over-performed that 17% above registration gain, 11 were in NEPA.

Corbett owned NEPA.