Sunday, October 5, 2008

Polls and the Bailout

Roll Call has new polling data in PA-10. According to Momentum Analysis’s findings:

Carney – 50%
Hackett – 36%

Overall, 51% had a favorable impression of Carney while 24% had an unfavorable opinion of him. Among Republicans, 41% had a favorable opinion of him and 33% had an unfavorable opinion of him.

65% of respondents had heard of Hackett. 31% had a favorable opinion of him while 34% had an unfavorable opinion of him.

The poll was release on Oct 3 and was paid for by Carney.

An independent poll conducted by Lycoming College Polling Institute was conducted on September 21-25. If found that:

Carney – 46%
Hackett – 36%

Both the independent poll and the poll commissioned by Carney seem to have very similar results.

Based on the coverage of the bailout vote, it certainly is possible that Carney’s position could improve during that time frame simply because of his two votes against the bailout. We are basically looking at a 4% increase. Hackett has made his campaign almost entirely about wasteful spending and tried to paint Carney as a “porker.” Perhaps by voting against the bailout, Carney diffused Hackett’s mantra which always seems to involve the words “liberal” or “wasteful.” Many media outlets have stated that opposition from constituents was running very high. By voting against the bailout, Carney may have insulated himself from all things liberal and wasteful.

Some will certainly say that Carney’s vote was the product of the inside-baseball that occurs on these very sensitive votes. Each of the caucus leaders know about how many votes they will need to pass a measure. If the bill is a political hot potato and people are very emotional about it, they leaders may allow members in hostile races to cast a safe, politically expedient vote. It is obvious that many members in contested races voted no on the bailout. Perhaps more telling is a comparison of the voting behavior of a member and the amount of money they have received from the banking industry.

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